The World Wants Rice

Rice shortages worry the world

Photo © Howard Dratch, 2007.

Fears of Food Shortages Rise

Rice stirs fears as the prices mounted ever higher and poorer populations rioted in anxiety over the coming famine. In the US some hysteria seems to have hit as people began hoarding rice from major groceries. The Bush people said “We have plenty of food in the U.S.” (U.S. Secretary of the Treasury Paulson reported to Reuters). He predicted food prices to rise but that the rise will be less “significant” that the rise in gas prices.

Rice has jumped to $1000 a ton which is said to be 3 times what it cost at the beginning of ‘08. Thoughts of social unrest in Asia are mounting with the cost of their staple. Africa and Haiti have seen riots as well. Here in Mexico where rice is a home-grown commodity (not that I wouldn’t like some Jasmine or Basmati before the cost the same as gas) there appears no shortage and prices remain relatively even.

“In Bangkok, some traders said Thai 100-percent B grade white rice, the world’s benchmark, could hit $1,300 a ton on demand from the number-one importer, Philippines.”

Read the CNBC report from Reuters HERE.

The Emerging Market Next Door

Look down just beneath that big ole state where Mr. President lives.  It is The United States of Mexico and it is emerging, showing signs of growth and, perhaps, even some independence from the domination of the dollar.

Not that pesos will soon become an internationally sought after currency.

Investors are watching CX, Telmex and AMX.

But my favorite tequila for the price is partly made so fine by its great label.  The fresh-faced cactus-fed all-Mexican beauty from the days of courtly Mexico.

A Mexican angel from the past.

Photo © Howard Dratch, 2008

Sex Hormones Affect Market Trading

Yahoo today reported on a newly proven link between male sexual hormone levels (testosterone strikes again) and market risk taking and success in financial markets.  This British study from Cambridge shows that elevated levels of testosterone in male traders boosts aggressivity and risk-taking and often supports success in the market.

Quintessential portrait of hard masculinity

Photo © Howard Dratch, 2006.

However, a continued hormonal rush finally backfires causing irrational risk-taking and behaviors that eventually compromise the success factor.  Those men with high testosterone in the mornings were “more likely” to make a financial gain during the day.

The second hormone involved — cortisol — is considered linked to “uncertainty, novelty and unpredictability” which, the researchers pointed out was “pretty much” what traders needed to be.

One comment was that the markets needed more women and old men to temper the excesses and irrationality of the financial alpha males.

The conclusions of the researchers were that:

“Cortisol is likely, therefore, to rise in a market crash and, by increasing risk aversion, to exaggerate the market’s downward movement. Testosterone, on the other hand, is likely to rise in a bubble and, by increasing risk taking, to exaggerate the market’s upward movement.”

And that, Coates and Herbert wrote, “may help explain why people caught in bubbles and crashes often find it difficult to make rational choices.”

Bottom Fishers Lurk Above Turbidity

Financial markets and expectations have spent months in turgidity.
Bottom feeders wait

As spring begins they have become turbid.

1 a: thick or opaque with or as if with roiled sediment <a turbid stream> b: heavy with smoke or mist2 a: deficient in clarity or purity : foul, muddy <turbid depths of degradation and misery — C. I. Glicksberg> b: characterized by or producing obscurity (as of mind or emotions) <an emotionally turbid response>