7 Color Lagoon

Not to ignore the possible effects of even a small tropical storm here is the wind predictive 5 day cone from NOAA.  It appears that Cozumel, Cancun and Merida will bear the brunt but these storms are fickle and still able to fool the predictors.

Dolly's Probable Wind Cone

I successfully upgraded WordPress (the blogware) to the latest version (2.6) and the image has appeared unlike the last post.

This is only a tropical storm but the “only” proved to be a dangerous concept with the last storm.  Only a tropical storm can still damage and kill and cannot be taken lightly.  I will go out now to fill the generator, close storm shutters and make sure there are no potential missiles lying around.  I wish I had more candles and batteries and may rue my inattention later.

The last tropical storm that hit us in Chetumal (it came up from Belize in late May) I belittled — and prepared.  I was wrong to belittle any storm.  It only brought us in the immediate area a lot of rain with flooding limited to remote areas, I thought.  I was wrong that time since a number of people died in Belize and parts of Campeche and Tabasco states in Mexico did suffer from the torrential rains.
As the active storm season begins the US is threatened with Bertha, there is a storm forming in the Pacific, a depression in the Atlantic that might or might not intensify and Dolly is making tracks for the Yucatan Peninsula (check out the graphic from NOAA.  It appears that Cancun, Playa del Carmen and the Mayan Riviera can expect some wind and water and Merida appears in its path.  With luck we will be spared on the southern frontier since I have not prepared well this time — although in this part of the world it is best to always be basically ready for a good storm.

Click on the NOAA link to see a range of storm track maps and predictions.  I could not get the image to load into the WordPress blog.  Maybe the new version of WordPress will work better.  If you get an “under construction” message it will be the change-over to the newer incarnation of the blogware.

I have been away from posting again as the potential sale of the house has taken a lot of time.  It is not yet in contract but there is some hope.  Stay tuned.

EDIT: It is now Monday, June 2.  The storm passed and seemed to have been small.  Then the backside hit with some winds and torrential rains.  Those 10-15 inches warned of may well have fallen.  Somehow the power has stayed on.  I have not ventured out to see if there was damage in Bacalar beyond the normal flooding of the streets that have no drainage (all of them).  Chetumal suffers the same flooding problems with any rain — streets have no drainage or it is blocked by garbage.  Still, next to Hurricane Dean last August, this was a puny wake-up call for the coming of the hurricane season.

Today the NOAA and National Hurricane Service warned of the approach of Arthur into Belize and up to the Yucatan:
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER  1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  AL012008
100 PM EDT SAT MAY 31 2008

…TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR…FIRST STORM OF THE 2008 ATLANTIC
SEASON…QUICKLY FORMS NEAR THE COAST OF BELIZE…ALREADY MOVING
INLAND…

AT 1 PM EDT…1700 UTC…THE GOVERNMENT OF BELIZE HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE COAST OF BELIZE….AND THE
GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM CABO
CATOCHE SOUTHWARD TO THE BORDER WITH BELIZE.  A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN
THE WARNING AREA..IN THIS CASE…WITHIN THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA…INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS…PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 100 PM EDT…1700Z…THE CENTER OF NEWLY FORMED TROPICAL STORM
ARTHUR WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.1 NORTH…LONGITUDE 88.5 WEST
OR ABOUT 45 MILES… 75 KM…NORTH-NORTHWEST OF BELIZE CITY AND
ABOUT 195 MILES …315 KM…SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF COZUMEL MEXICO.

ARTHUR IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH…13 KM/HR. ON
THIS TRACK THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION WILL BE MOVING OVER YUCATAN
TODAY AND EARLY SUNDAY. (more…)

Photo © Howard Dratch.

It has been nearly a month since I have posted.  My other blogs are languishing while I try to survive in my own changed environment, changed circumstances and interests.  However, I miss writing even if only a little.

The plan is to continue this blog, 7 Color Lagoon, with changes.  It is less about travel and living as an expatriate as it will be about global economics, photography, economic news and whatever happens to catch my eye and interest.  Links will slowly be checked and redone and the ads and Amazon store re-arranged to reflect the new subject matter.  Please support the advertisers as it helps continue the blog.

Here is a current (5/16) report from Canal Once, the Mexican news and TV network from the Polytechnic Institute in the capital city.  The 5th annual meeting of leaders of the Latin American states is being held in Lima, Peru under guard by 9000 police.  A major issue being discussed is global food supplies in light of diversions to biofuels, poverty and climatic changes.

This is an excerpt from Canal Once in Spanish,

Sumida en la pobreza sobrevive una tercera parte de la población de América Latina, son 220 millones de personas que carecen de lo indispensable. A este sector se dirigieron los trabajos de la Quinta Cumbre de Jefes de Estado de Latinoamérica, el Caribe y la Unión Europea en Lima, Perú, a la que acudieron 45 gobernantes.

Desarrollo sustentable, cambio climático y energía fueron otros de los temas principales. Se llegó a un acuerdo para analizar un posible gravamen al consumo de petróleo y gas licuado a fin de conseguir fondos que serían destinados a mejorar el medio ambiente.

The Lima meeting is concentrating on the poverty that continues to affect one-third or the Latin American population — 220 million people.  President Garcia opened remarks with the declaration that hundreds of millions of people are threatened with hunger in the midst of abundance.  The European Union is the primary donor in  humanitarian aid.

Garcia warned of the consequences of eyes closed against the food crisis and proposed increasing by 2% world agricultural production.  The Spanish president, Josè Luis Rodriquez Zapatero, lamented the impact of biofuel production on  rising food prices.  Besides Hugo Chavez, Venezuelan president, trying to turn the meeting to the political crises between his country and Columbia; the major themes were sustainable development, climate change, energy needs and funds to improve the environment.

The food crisis is not just a Market manipulation.  It may well be partly a result of what Robert Heilbroner called a “revolution of rising expectations”.  Like global warming that revolution gathered momentum slowly and is now breaking out in a rapidly ascending line.  People want things they didn’t have before nor even thought to have.  More meat in their diet (healthy or not), regular meals, cell phones, national infrastructure, TV, education, credit and consumer goods, etc.  The revolution has been won in that the world is more and more demanding that its expectations be met.  Providing those expectations may strain resources on an over-crowded planet and change the political face of many parts of the world.

Photo © Howard Dratch, 2008.  Pasta & tofu.

The world may not be waiting for this heart-healthy dish of tofu, nopal cactus, chaya leaf and zucchini but it is tired of waiting for 2 or 3 meals a day.  Now that everyone - almost - watches TV they are aware that the world has plenty of food and toys and they want a piece of the action, a slice of the pie.

Financial markets and expectations have spent months in turgidity.

As spring begins they have become turbid.

1 a: thick or opaque with or as if with roiled sediment <a turbid stream> b: heavy with smoke or mist2 a: deficient in clarity or purity : foul, muddy <turbid depths of degradation and misery — C. I. Glicksberg> b: characterized by or producing obscurity (as of mind or emotions) <an emotionally turbid response>

The NY Times reported today in their World Business section about the future for commodities — the things we must consume. Wheat, corn, soy beans, mustard seeds with the other staples of life are rising in price, in demand and in scarcity.

There have been droughts and failed harvests here and there but the major culprit is demand. Global demand. Rising demand. Desperate demand. It is Dr. Heilbroner’s famous “revolution of rising expectations”. The world is growing richer and growing more aware from the dissemination of technology. The Times reports on a Nigerian man’s hunger for bread and tea for his breakfast, Italians want pasta as do the people of other cultures. The Chinese want rice and noodles and the port to flavor it. Americans want everything that can fit in a super-sized market the size of a city block. And they want ethanol for their cars along with corn on the cob for dinner, corn to feed the cattle and whatever proportion of real food is put into fast food.

Where once the then primitive populations who are now referred to as “emerging” wanted enough of their historic staples to survive; they want enough food to enjoy their lives, different foods and even America’s deadly exports of fast food. Here in Chetumal, Mexico on the edge of the jungle in a region just recently emerging from jungle poverty, we now have a McDonalds, Burger King, a few Dominoes and a Sam’s Club. Money is being made and people want that which was denied and that which, a few years ago, was not available here. Ten years ago when I came here it was hard to find olive oil let alone extra-virgen. There was aceite comestible (edible oil) or manteca de cerdo (pig fat) for cooking. Now the supermarket stocks 6-12 brands of olive oil and even oregano oil, pasta from Mexico, Italy, Spain and France, soy sauce from China and Asian noodles.

For farmers it is obviously a gusher or profits as they try to decide how to allocate their seemingly scarce acres to the most profitable crops. Investors vie to move money from stock equities into commodities and commodity-driven stocks.

There is more to the story than just the growing affluence and power of farmers and agri-businesses. There is more than the soaring profits of farm machinery and of agricultural chemicals.

Perhaps most important to the world (rather than just the investment community) is that revolution which is gaining momentum. Watch all the cooking channels and vlogs on cooking. China’s billion people continue to want rice and noodles, pigs and chickens, chiles and spices. They want more of the same and maybe a hamburger now and again. I would not be surprised that many pine for pine nuts to put in the pesto, black olives from Greece and truffles from France.

The most cogent comment in the excellent Times article is “Everyone wants to eat like an American on this globe,” said Daniel W. Basse of the AgResource Company, a Chicago consultancy. “But if they do, we’re going to need another two or three globes to grow it all.”

The next factor has been the demand for foodstuffs to be used for non-feeding of the world’s population — obese or hungry. Ethanol is a case in point. All that corn being used to power vehicles is hard to believe while living in a society that calls itself “the people of the corn”. When the Maya had nearly vanquished the Mexican/Spanish population from Yucatan during the Caste Wars in 1848-49 (which continued into the early 20th c.); the corn god announced the time for planting and the uprising failed when they all went back to their milpas to plant corn, beans and chiles.

Eating seems to be a basic desire that transcends even trade. It is doubtful that it will lose its importance in the near term. The revolution of rising expectations has raised the minimum in most places from bare survival to a full plate and the hope of another meal in the near future. The desire will not diminish but the supply could fall under the onslaught of demand.

For investors it could mean commodities and commodity-based equities will be a place to hide from the avalanche of bad news. It is probably a trend that will continue. But farmers learned long ago that the gods of agriculture are strong and fickle. For now the producers of foods (ADM, CAG, SJM and others), the purveyors of fast foods, convenience foods and the new staples (KO, YUM, KFT, HRL,DM, PAS, MCD) and the agri-chemical and agri-businesses are swinging the weight of rising food prices around.

When you go home the market realm will give way to the new prices for bread, pasta, milk, eggs. Buen provecho!

Photo ©Howard Dratch, 2008. Lunch buffet in a country club in the land of plenty.

Photo ©Howard Dratch. Market vendor in the state of San Luis Potosì.

Since I have been posting again to my blog(s) and shooting a little, I have rebuilt the gallery of photographs of my house for sale on the shore of the Laguna Bacalar.

Visit the gallery — Bacalar House For Sale — by clicking on this link or on the blogroll in the left column.

The Times ran an interesting piece on another form of solar energy for the coming fossil fuel crisis — solar thermal power. Mirror farms focus desert sunlight onto pipes or towers that contain a liquid. The heated liquid powers a generator to produce electricity. Not new and not without its own dangers; but fascinating.

Check out their story about “Turning Glare Into Watts”.

A picture from my garden as a post for today. Appropriate for Sunday.

We’ve been there to visit these gaseous giants. We, the race of humans, that is who sent out a robot spacecraft and sat back to await the pictures. NASA

provides such great images from Astronomy Pictue of the Day as well as the NASA site.

The Jupiter image is wonderful because of its 3D quality.

The Saturn pictue with its rings because the robot camera and its earth-based controllers didn’t just go the distance and send back a snapshot. The image reminds me of Steichen or Weston in its planes, muted color palette and “modern” composition. Wait! It is a NASA picture from space.