Dolly Moves Inexorably

Not to ignore the possible effects of even a small tropical storm here is the wind predictive 5 day cone from NOAA.  It appears that Cozumel, Cancun and Merida will bear the brunt but these storms are fickle and still able to fool the predictors.

Dolly's Probable Wind Cone

Dolly's Probable Wind Cone

I successfully upgraded WordPress (the blogware) to the latest version (2.6) and the image has appeared unlike the last post.

This is only a tropical storm but the “only” proved to be a dangerous concept with the last storm.  Only a tropical storm can still damage and kill and cannot be taken lightly.  I will go out now to fill the generator, close storm shutters and make sure there are no potential missiles lying around.  I wish I had more candles and batteries and may rue my inattention later.

Tropical Storm Dolly Threatens Yucatan

The last tropical storm that hit us in Chetumal (it came up from Belize in late May) I belittled — and prepared.  I was wrong to belittle any storm.  It only brought us in the immediate area a lot of rain with flooding limited to remote areas, I thought.  I was wrong that time since a number of people died in Belize and parts of Campeche and Tabasco states in Mexico did suffer from the torrential rains.
As the active storm season begins the US is threatened with Bertha, there is a storm forming in the Pacific, a depression in the Atlantic that might or might not intensify and Dolly is making tracks for the Yucatan Peninsula (check out the graphic from NOAA.  It appears that Cancun, Playa del Carmen and the Mayan Riviera can expect some wind and water and Merida appears in its path.  With luck we will be spared on the southern frontier since I have not prepared well this time — although in this part of the world it is best to always be basically ready for a good storm.

Click on the NOAA link to see a range of storm track maps and predictions.  I could not get the image to load into the WordPress blog.  Maybe the new version of WordPress will work better.  If you get an “under construction” message it will be the change-over to the newer incarnation of the blogware.

I have been away from posting again as the potential sale of the house has taken a lot of time.  It is not yet in contract but there is some hope.  Stay tuned.

Wash Food, Eat Safely

New Post on my little blog, Lizard Stew, about disinfecting foods — especially those eaten raw.  Tomatoes are in the news for that reason.  Last year it was “pre-washed” spinach.  It is a simple process that is not only for the developing nations.  Moctezuma can visit the US, too, for his revenge.

The other alternative is to eat cooked foods.  These tomatoes are safely cooked in a sauce with onions, capers, olives, and (for me) chiles.

Whole fish in a Veracruz style sauce at the Restaurant Cenote Azul.  Photo © Howard Dratch.

First Tropical Storm Of Season Threatens Yucatan

EDIT: It is now Monday, June 2.  The storm passed and seemed to have been small.  Then the backside hit with some winds and torrential rains.  Those 10-15 inches warned of may well have fallen.  Somehow the power has stayed on.  I have not ventured out to see if there was damage in Bacalar beyond the normal flooding of the streets that have no drainage (all of them).  Chetumal suffers the same flooding problems with any rain — streets have no drainage or it is blocked by garbage.  Still, next to Hurricane Dean last August, this was a puny wake-up call for the coming of the hurricane season.

Today the NOAA and National Hurricane Service warned of the approach of Arthur into Belize and up to the Yucatan:
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER  1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  AL012008
100 PM EDT SAT MAY 31 2008

…TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR…FIRST STORM OF THE 2008 ATLANTIC
SEASON…QUICKLY FORMS NEAR THE COAST OF BELIZE…ALREADY MOVING
INLAND…

AT 1 PM EDT…1700 UTC…THE GOVERNMENT OF BELIZE HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE COAST OF BELIZE….AND THE
GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM CABO
CATOCHE SOUTHWARD TO THE BORDER WITH BELIZE.  A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN
THE WARNING AREA..IN THIS CASE…WITHIN THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA…INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS…PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 100 PM EDT…1700Z…THE CENTER OF NEWLY FORMED TROPICAL STORM
ARTHUR WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.1 NORTH…LONGITUDE 88.5 WEST
OR ABOUT 45 MILES… 75 KM…NORTH-NORTHWEST OF BELIZE CITY AND
ABOUT 195 MILES …315 KM…SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF COZUMEL MEXICO.

ARTHUR IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH…13 KM/HR. ON
THIS TRACK THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION WILL BE MOVING OVER YUCATAN
TODAY AND EARLY SUNDAY. (more…)

Jupiter and Saturn

We’ve been there to visit these gaseous giants. We, the race of humans, that is who sent out a robot spacecraft and sat back to await the pictures. NASA

provides such great images from Astronomy Pictue of the Day as well as the NASA site.

The Jupiter image is wonderful because of its 3D quality.

Jupiter

The Saturn pictue with its rings because the robot camera and its earth-based controllers didn’t just go the distance and send back a snapshot. The image reminds me of Steichen or Weston in its saturnrings.jpgplanes, muted color palette and “modern” composition. Wait! It is a NASA picture from space.

I Have Returned

That general said that as he took back the Phillipines on the way to Japan.

My return is less spectacular but filled with culture-shock. I am back in Bacalar, still kicking albeit weakly and in Spanish. For a time I closed the walls of the property around the house and closed the house around me. I needed my hermit-like privacy. Now I begin to function.

The culture shock was shocking in its dual feelings of foreign-ness in both this alien country where I live and in my own, changed America. This, after all, was America’s good-bye and bon voyage to the M/S Fascination as we left Miami under guard. Two jet-skiers headed with whoops of glee would have played in the wake of the ship but for being headed off by a serious looking USCG craft escorting the floating hotel to the high seas.

Coast Guard guard for the Fascination

Photo ©Howard Dratch, 2007

Let me plug a nifty (that is the appropriate word) little application, iGlasses.  It adds huge functionality and fun to Apple’s Photo Booth.  Since I don’t do and haven’t the bandwidth for video messaging, it is still great fun with my series of self-portraits from the MacBook Pro’s built-in lens in the screen.                      Heat sensitive self-portrait

Terrorist Attacks In Mexico Affect Industry

Recent terrorist explosions aimed at multi-national corporations and the Mexican economy which culminated today in a gas-line explosion. The explosion has seriously affected Hershey’s, Honda and other multi-national corporations in the western state of Queretaro, Mexico. The terrorist attack is being claimed by “a small, leftist rebel group” called the People’s Revolutionary Army (EPR) according to a report this morning in the blog, “The Latin Americanist”.

Le Monde Diplomatique reported in 1996 that the group was “…born in the 1960s, this very secretive Maoist-oriented organization “has more than a bad reputation“, said a leader (then) of the EZLN, the “Zapatistas” who have been mostly co-opted by the former Fox government who treated them fairly and firmly.

CNN followed The Latin Americanist with a report about the effect of the gas-line explosion on nearly a dozen Mexican businesses and multi-nationals. Nissan, Honda, Kellog’s and Hershey had to be closed or their production scaled back. Mexican industries like Grupo Modelo (beer) and Vitro SAB (glass containers) are suffering financial losses. Total losses to businesses in the region are being put at at least 70 million pesos a day ($US 6.4 million) according to the influential news organization Excelsior.

PEMEX, the Mexican monopolistic petroleum producer, reported that previous explosions on pipelines Tuesday as well as two others last week affected industries in “… in the industry-rich city of Guadalajara, capital of the western state of Jalisco; the industrial city of Leon, in the central state of Guanajuato; and the central states of Queretaro and Aguascalientes.”

CNN describes the group as “ … the “military zone command of the People’s Revolutionary Army,“ or EPR, a tiny rebel group that staged several armed attacks on government and police installations in southern Mexico in the 1990s, but was later weakened by internal divisions.”

It is the nature of terrorist groups to strike at times when they are least able to be tolerated. President Calderòn’s government is working hard to control crime and violence in the country and President Fox had been effective in including the EZLN in the workings of Mexican society. Another societal disruption was hardly needed.

Full Disclosure Is Honestly Honest

The past 6 weeks have been filled with designing this new web site, 7 Color Lagoon, and learning how to mount and run a site. Something that I cannot say I have mastered. Far from it. Today this blog is up as are some photography galleries. My other blogs remain on Blogger — Notes From Bacalar, Lizard Stew, and The Mayan World.

One positive note for me has been that they are now producing a small “income stream” — which is to say that they make a little money rather than just costing money for computer, web host, and my time and energies.

It has paid for my Macbook Pro rather than allowing the guilt over the price ruin my pleasure in it.


I have joined Pay Per Post and will be adding a link to their services. This will put a badge on the blog allowing advertisers to deal directly with me. They do allow the blogger to pick and choose among advertisers. Therefore questionable offers or links can be avoided. That pleased me.

One of the first sites I checked out is for a new company producing simple, inexpensive, no-frills bicycles starting at $95 that look servicable, fun and not so expensive that you would have to worry about it unduly. A $1200 racing bike might look great under you on Miami Beach but not-so-great when you come out of the restaurant to not find it waiting for you. Here in Mexico that is a continual decision. A snazzy car is good for the ego but sad when you are car-jacked because you had showed off your wealth. The cruiser bikes look like a great compromise for the beach or the city.

The bicycle appears more and more to be a viable alternative, as it is in Europe and Latin America, to the gas-eating car. One way to fight the forces of the Middle-East who continue to have a strangle-hold over the West is to avoid the necessity of supporting their oil production. We have had at least since the 1973 oil crisis to develop fuel-efficiency in transport and to invent alternatives. We have not used those 30-plus years well.

XYZ also has a complementary blog that includes news of new designs on their way (how about a low-rider, chopped-looking model?) and assembly instructions for all the models they have made.

Speaking of fully disclosing any links to commercial activities, please view my disclosure policy on the Disclosure Page for this and the external blogs.

Brazilian Kidnap Response

I noted last night on Mexican TV news that Brazilian police staged a kidnap-rescue drill.

They were reported to have used live ammunition.

One small boy is dead.

Digital Kidnappers In The Kidnap Capitals

There is a new wrinkle in what has become a national sport in a number of Latin American countries — kidnapping. The new fear is of “virtual kidnapping” which is becoming more prevalent in the normally crime ridden countries like Mexico, Brazil, Argentina and Guatemala.

The usually violent, seldom solved (or rescued) crime is now also the fear-laden version of spam and phishing. Even Latino criminals are going digital. A news story about the new scheme started with the story of an office machine repairman in Mexico City who received a call on his cell with a child’s cry and a “Honey, it’s me, I’ve been kidnapped!”

Rodolfo Melchor called the cops and raced home. After those tense minutes to get to his family, he found that they were fine. He had managed to avoid being one of the new victims of “virtual kidnapping” where ransoms are collected without the criminals actually taking anyone (or, as is often the case in these societies, taking their lives) or handling weapons. It is a fiendish and dangerous scam far more worrisome than identity theft or those little notes from Nigerian bank officers who can’t wait to give away those lost millions.

A Guatemalan prison spokesman was quoted as saying “They make them believe they know everything they do, where their children study, where they work and all their daily movements.”

Many or most of these crimes do not become part of the statisChained Doortics because the police note them as robberies or assaults since no one was really kidnapped. Many victims do not report the crime because, in these third world countries, “police are often unresponsive, inept or corrupt.” Many are too embarrassed at having fallen for a scam.

It is noted that this virtual version of the crime and kidnapping for real are a big business. Sao Paulo state in Brazil reported three thousand virtual kidnaps between the first of the year and 14 February. Mexico (a citizens’ group who used polling for their results) estimated 36,295 kidnappings in their country during 2004. They have not published newer figures yet.

There is also the fact that the world’s leading countries for kidnapping are Mexico, Haiti and Columbia. The victim’s family often do not report the crime because of the total lack of faith in their countries’ “authorities”.

“The mother of one Mexico City man missing since June 2005 embarrassed police by carrying out her own detective work that led to several arrests, and then paid for billboards offering rewards for information on other alleged kidnappers.”

This might be considered a bit of silliness with ransoms running $600 to $1200 in Guatemala and $50 to “the thousands” in Mexico. It is not silly, not spam. The office machine repairman did not pay the money. His family was unharmed. He was put under intense pressure and, when he reached his home, the police had gotten confused and told his wife that he had been kidnapped and she was hysterical with worry.

In Argentina at least one man died from a heart attack. He had paid $1000 to virtual kidnappers who purported to have taken his son.

Since many of these scams are run from prisons in Mexico and Guatemala, those countries have banned cell phones in prisons and tried to jam signals. Mexico set up a system to alert people when they are getting a call from a prison pay phone. However, given the traditional corruption of both police and prison workers, it would be unlikely that this ban would actually work.